County Playoffs: Friday Preview

Before we get into today's game previews and predictions, here's a look at where we stand in the Oneida County playoff bracket (click to enlarge):



















*One more quick note that I think is worth mentioning before we move on: Three of Oneida County's four remaining teams come from its Gold Division (New Hartford, Utica and Sherrill), with only Smith left to represent the Blue. This is noteworthy because of the notion from many (before the season and even entering the playoffs) that the Blue was clearly the deeper division. Even the teams' regular season records (see the left side of the screen - your right) would lead many to believe just that. However, it seems that the playoffs have proven that the Gold is indeed the tougher of the two divisions. Not only do more Gold than Blue teams remain, but, through Thursday's games, the Gold's teams are 4-2 against the Blue's in the playoffs.

Now, to the previews and predictions (by the way, after a quick 3-1 start on the predictions, I'm now at a less-than-impressive 5-5)...

Losers Bracket Semifinal: (4) Utica (13-7) vs. (7) Sherrill (11-9) at DeLutis Field, 5:30 p.m.
Sherrill and Utica split its regular season series (1-1) in a rather uncommon fashion. After having its first game suspended in a 7-7 tie through eight innings, the two teams met up on July 17 to finish the game and play a full second.

Utica ended up taking the first game 11-10 in 11 innings. After the two teams traded runs in the ninth, Utica scored three 11th-inning runs and then held on to win with the tying run just 90 feet away from home for Sherrill. Game two belonged to Sherrill as two young Sherrill pitchers - Jason Dalton and Steve Davis - combined for a three-hit complete game. Sherrill went ahead 1-0 in the second, 2-0 in the fourth, and then put the game out of reach with seven runs in the final frame on its way to a 9-0 victory.

Today's match-up will look a little different as Utica's Joe Perrotta, who threw 11 and 1/3 innings total innings in the two regular season games, will likely not be available after throwing a complete game against Whitestown on Thursday. Ryan Donovan, who threw another 6 and 1/3 in the two games (Mike King threw the other 1/3 inning), is probably also not going to throw after going seven complete against Love on Wednesday.

So who's going to throw for Utica? Well, the obvious answer would seem to be T.J. Abounader. He's arguably the team's top arm and is on more than ample rest having not pitched since last Monday's loss to New Hartford (July 14). But, it seems that there may be a very good reason for that. You see, Abounader left that game with back pains, leaving many to question as to whether it is an injury that has kept him from throwing in the playoffs. While Utica manager Greg Gaeta did not say so directly, I can't help but think Abounader is indeed hurt at least to some degree. When I asked him about Abounader's status following last night's game, Gaeta said he was unsure (of whether he would pitch tonight) and his voice did not seem very promising or enthusiastic. If Abounader does pitch tonight, it will be something to pay close attention to as he is likely not near 100 percent.

Prediction: Sherrill. The grit and grind mentality of this team should carry them into the losers bracket final against the loser of Friday's Smith-New Hartford game. While it's unclear as to what depth of pitching remains for Sherrill, it can't be in quite as dire a situation as Utica, who - as previously mentioned - is without two (possibly three) of its top arms. Regardless of who's pitching, I think Sherrill continues its hot hitting on its way to a win tonight.

Winners Bracket Final: Smith (20-0) vs. (2) New Hartford (14-5) at DeLutis Field, 8 p.m.
Now I know none of you have forgetten what happened the last, and only, time the league's top two teams clashed. I certainly haven't. The game, which spanned over two days (June 23 and 24) due to darkness, was scoreless through 14 innings until Smith plated two runs in the top of the 15th and hung on for a 2-0 victory in a wildly entertaining 260 minute game.

While Smith outhit New Hartford 12-1, the name of the game was pitching. Smith's Joe Melioris threw a one-hitter over the game's first eight innings only to be outdone by reliever Garrett Baker, who came on to no-hit New Hartford over the final seven. The two combined for 21 strike outs (Melioris 13, Baker 8) and if not for a Mike Matt chopper over the pitcher's mound, they would have combined on a 15-inning "no-no." However, New Hartford's pitching wasn't too shabby either. Alex Giovannone pitched the game's first eight innings, allowing only five hits while striking out six. Eric Verbickas went the rest of the way and took the tough-luck loss despite throwing seven solid innings of seven-hit ball in relief.

If you want to read more about the last time these two met, click here: http://www.uticaod.com/sports/legionbaseball/x1743979508/Smith-New-Hartford-play-to-Legion-Baseball-deadlock
And here: http://www.uticaod.com/sports/legionbaseball/x1470891555/Smith-Post-outlasts-New-Hartford

I expect today's match-up may look a lot like the last one as Baker will take the hill for Smith on nearly a week's rest, and Verbickas is likely to start for New Hartford. While Erik Sheridan is also fresh and presents another viable pitching option for New Hartford (its only used two pitchers all tournament), I expect manager John Randall to go with Verbickas if for nothing more than to keep the speedy Sheridan in left field (he made a phenomenal diving grab in Tuesday's 8-1 win over Whitestown).

Today's game is a rematch of each of the past two season's Oneida County playoff finals (New Hartford won in 2006, Smith in 2007). So, one thing is for sure: both teams will be ready to go. Smith is undeniably the league's hottest team with a perfect regular season league record of 20-0. New Hartford (14-5) is scorching as well, having won nine straight after dropping five in row earlier in the season. And don't forget, New Hartford's earlier loss to Smith was the start of that five-game skid. You can be certain that no one in red and blue has forgotten that.

Prediction: Smith. While I know New Hartford is capable of winning this game (see: Coaching, John Randall and Greg Jones in the dictionary), I just find it hard to expect a team that was no-hit by the same pitcher earlier in the season to come out and beat him. On the season, Baker is 7-0 with a 1.85 ERA and 48 strike outs in 45 innings. How can you pick against that? It could very well happen, but it's going to be tough and it'll take a near-perfect performance. Because of that, I have to go with Smith (besides, New Hartford probably wants me to pick against it having won its first two playoffs games after I predicted a loss for my alma mater). I expect this to be a very tight, low-scoring game as neither team is quite as powerful on offense as the 2006 versions of Smith and New Hartford that finished fifth and first in the state, respectively. But, these two teams can definitely play defense and are probably the league's two best in that regard, so don't be surprised if you see a few web gems (see: New Hartford SS Joe Betar, CF Mike Matt, LF Sheridan; Smith 3B Eli Hedrington, SS Ryan Kramer, RF Jason Nowicki) at DeLutis tonight.